Climate Change & Global Warming

Climate change and global warming are well up on the current political agenda. There are urgent questions everyone is asking: are human activities altering the climate? Is global warming a reality? How big are the changes likely to be? Will there be more serious disasters; will they be more frequent? Can we adapt to climate change or can we change the way we do things so that we can slow down the change or even prevent it occurring?

Because the Earth's climate system is highly complex, and because human behavior and reaction to change is even more complex, providing answers to these questions is an enormous challenge to the world's scientists.

The natural climate creates one of the most important general conditions for our existence. It has repeatedly been observed that climate not only is the foundation of human civilization, but also causes its particular forms, successes and failures.

Humans are therefore either at a disadvantage or favored, depending upon their climate region. However, humankind is not merely if at all, and at all times, a creature determined by climate, and climate is not just an object of human contemplation. Climate is also partly the result of human activity, a condition recently increasingly confirmed by the scientific community.

Human-induced climate change is now recognized phenomenon. Our ability to predict how climate will change and how those changes will impact ecosystems and humans improved markedly during the last decade. Debate continues about the exact degree of future change, and there are many uncertainties. Some argue that immediate and drastic measures must be taken to control greenhouse gas emissions before it is too late. The precautionary principle (better safe than sorry !!!) is invoked. Others argue that action will be costly and should be delayed until more research is completed.

The incidence of various impacts of global warming is complex and far from uniform over the world.

There are many ways in which our current environment is being degraded due to human activities; global warming will tend to exacerbate these degradations. Sea-level rise will make the situation worse for low-lying land which is subsiding because of the withdrawal of ground water and because the amount of sediment required to maintain the level of the land has been reduced. The loss of soil due to overuse of land or deforestations will be accelerated, with increasing droughts or floods in some areas. In other places, extensive deforestation will lead to drier climate and less sustainable agriculture.

The most important impact is on water supplies, which are in any case becoming increasingly critical in many places. Some parts of the world are expected to become warmer and drier, especially in summer, with a greater likelihood of droughts; in other parts a greater incidence of floods is expected.

Because of the likely rate of climate change, there will also be a serious impact on natural ecosystems, especially at mid to high latitudes. Forests especially will be affected by increased climate stress causing substantial die-back and loss of production, associated with which is likely to be the positive feedback of additional carbon dioxide emissions.

In warmer world longer periods of heat stress will have an effect on human health; warmer temperatures will also encourage the spread of certain tropical diseases, such as malaria, to new areas.

Economists have attempted to estimate the average annual cost in money terms of the impacts which would arise under the climate change likely for the IPCC business-as-usual scenario or greenhouse gas emissions. Averaged over the world for a time around in the middle of this century, these estimates are typically around 1-1.5% of GDP for developed countries and around 5% for developing countries.

It is important to bear in mind that these estimates have concentrated on the doubled carbon dioxide scenario (in other words, next 50-60 years). If the strong action is not taken to curb carbon dioxide emissions, after the end of the century, a further doubling of the equivalent carbon dioxide concentration will have occurred and it will be continuing to rise.

However, many will ask why we should be concerned about the state of the Earth so far ahead in future. Can we not leave it to be looked after by future generations???

- Rushi GHADAWALA